Let’s start out by saying that it is now mathematically impossible for Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination based on the delegates (more details in the article). Trump, on the other hand, needs only 58% of the remaining delegates. In any other election cycle, the party would rally behind the leader. But 2016 is a unique year indeed when the Establishment is trying to sabotage the front-runner!
A contested convention for the Republican party has been discussed for a few months now. This happens when no candidate gets more 50% of the total delegates at the end of the GOP contest on June 7th. The Republican Convention is held a month later, July 18-21. To give a historical perspective, the last time that Republicans had a contested convention was in 1964!
When it comes to the delegate math, the magic number is 1236. Thus a candidate must get at least 1237 delegates to become the nominee of the Republican party who will then run in the general election.
The picture below shows where the candidates stand, in terms of delegates won so far:
There are 15 States left that have a total of 674 delegates. As you can see, even if Cruz wins all of those 674 delegates, he will fall short of 1237. Trump is the only one capable of reaching 1237, and all he needs is to win 392 delegates out of 674, which is very doable.
But … Cruz and Kasich can still play the roles of spoilers. They can remain in the race and win just enough delegates that nobody reaches 1237.
So, say for example, Trump ends up with 1200 delegates – just short of the required 1237 – after the last primaries on June 7th. Then there is a very good chance that somebody else other than Trump will end up as the nominee — even somebody like John Kasich who will have acquired a tiny fraction of the delegates. Or it could be someone such as Marco Rubio who dropped out of the race long time ago. Or even someone who didn’t even run at all- a “white knight” candidate, an insider who is handpicked by the oligarchs and the GOP Establishment! All these scenarios are possible only because the entire establishment, the insiders, big corporations and their lobbyists … all hate Donald Trump!
It doesn’t matter if Trump will be #1 with millions of votes more than anybody else, and will have almost as many delegates as all the other contestants combined. To make sense of this madness, we have to understand the complex, Byzantine delegate system.
Delegate System Quickly Explained
The astonishing fact that rarely gets understood is that regular people don’t elect a Presidential nominee! Only delegates vote for and choose a nominee. In other words, after these elections, there is another election – a real election – where the delegates vote and choose the winner! Who are these “delegates”? These are people handpicked by the party leaders. In most cases, voters don’t even know who these delegates are.
The reason that this has not been a big issue historically is that the delegates usually vote the same way the voters decided. And the reason for that is that from the beginning of the race, the candidates are properly screened and selected by the rich and the powerful. So whoever wins is still a puppet of the Establishment. The entire system is carefully organized to avoid surprises such as Trump.
Going back to the delegate process, as an example, consider the fact that Trump won Florida and got all the 99 delegates. During the convention in July, in the first round of voting, all these delegates must vote for Trump. These are called “bound delegates.”
However, if Trump doesn’t secure the 1237 delegates in the first round, then all hell breaks loose. From the second round onwards, the delegates can choose to vote for whoever they want. And how will these delegates vote? How can somebody change the minds of these delegates? Absolutely no rules or ethics have been defined. Meaning, that these delegates can be bribed and bought! Really.
To make things complicated, there are some states such as Pennsylvania which allocate unbound delegates from the get go. Thus, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, he will get only 17 bound delegates. There will be 54 other unbound delegates who can vote for anyone even in the first round of voting at the convention. This is how a candidate can win a state and still lose it. On a related note, there are about a total of 200 unbound delegates from all states combined.
There are other states such as Colorado which never even held an election. The party leaders simply chose the delegates who – surprise, surprise! – will all be voting for Cruz. Democracy be damned!
OMG, Is There a Simple Solution?
The simple solution is for Donald Trump to get at least 1237 bound delegates. It’s hard, but quite possible. His landslide victory in New York – where he won 90 out of 95 delegates – gives him a big momentum. Now he is poised to win all the five upcoming primaries on April 26th. So, below are two paths for him to win the nomination. The first one is a bit conservative that gets him barely over the top. However, if he wins big on April 26th, he will have a powerful wind behind his back and can sail into victory comfortably. The second picture reflects this possibility.
Note: Two States from June 7 are not shown in these pics below – Montana and South Dakota – on the assumption that Trump will lose them. These are small states that are heavily controlled by the GOP Establishment.
Delegate Math and Path to Nomination for Trump
Conservative Path to Victory:
Comfortable Path If Trump Does Well on Apr 26:
So, everything depends on this coming Tuesday, April 26th. If Trump crushes it like he did in NY, then it’s smooth sailing onward. If it’s lackluster, don’t count Trump out. He is a winner! But based on the polls, all five states on Apr 26 look very good for Trump: